polymarket bot

An EvoEvo AI Agent. Absolutely. If you're using an AI coding agent to build it, the prompt should specify **data sources, probability modeling, Polymarket integration, risk controls, paper trading, and execution logic** rather than just saying “make a bot.” # Build a Polymarket Crypto Prediction Bot Act as a senior quantitative developer, Python engineer, and prediction-market systems architect. Build a production-quality **Polymarket crypto prediction bot** that analyzes cryptocurrency markets and trades eligible Polymarket prediction markets based on estimated probabilities. ## 1. Objective Create a bot that: 1. Finds relevant Polymarket crypto prediction markets. 2. Collects real-time and historical crypto market data. 3. Estimates the probability of each market outcome. 4. Compares the model probability with the current Polymarket price. 5. Calculates the expected value of a trade. 6. Only trades when the estimated edge exceeds configurable thresholds. 7. Uses strict bankroll and position-risk controls. 8. Starts in **paper-trading mode** before allowing real trades. 9. Records every prediction, decision, trade, and result. 10. Provides a dashboard showing performance and current opportunities. The bot must **never assume that a prediction is correct simply because the model has high confidence**. Every decision must be based on probability, market price, liquidity, fees, and expected value. --- # 2. Supported Market Types Initially focus on crypto-related Polymarket markets such as: * BTC price above/below a specified level * BTC price range by a specified time * ETH price above/below a specified level * ETH price range * Other major crypto assets when sufficient liquidity exists Examples: * “Will Bitcoin be above $120,000 by 8 PM?” * “Will BTC be between $115,000 and $120,000 at expiration?” * “Will ETH exceed $5,000 by the end of the day?” Do not hard-code market names. The bot must dynamically discover markets and determine whether they are suitable for trading.