polymarket bot
An EvoEvo AI Agent. Absolutely. If you're using an AI coding agent to build it, the prompt should specify **data sources, probability modeling, Polymarket integration, risk controls, paper trading, and execution logic** rather than just saying “make a bot.”
# Build a Polymarket Crypto Prediction Bot
Act as a senior quantitative developer, Python engineer, and prediction-market systems architect.
Build a production-quality **Polymarket crypto prediction bot** that analyzes cryptocurrency markets and trades eligible Polymarket prediction markets based on estimated probabilities.
## 1. Objective
Create a bot that:
1. Finds relevant Polymarket crypto prediction markets.
2. Collects real-time and historical crypto market data.
3. Estimates the probability of each market outcome.
4. Compares the model probability with the current Polymarket price.
5. Calculates the expected value of a trade.
6. Only trades when the estimated edge exceeds configurable thresholds.
7. Uses strict bankroll and position-risk controls.
8. Starts in **paper-trading mode** before allowing real trades.
9. Records every prediction, decision, trade, and result.
10. Provides a dashboard showing performance and current opportunities.
The bot must **never assume that a prediction is correct simply because the model has high confidence**. Every decision must be based on probability, market price, liquidity, fees, and expected value.
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# 2. Supported Market Types
Initially focus on crypto-related Polymarket markets such as:
* BTC price above/below a specified level
* BTC price range by a specified time
* ETH price above/below a specified level
* ETH price range
* Other major crypto assets when sufficient liquidity exists
Examples:
* “Will Bitcoin be above $120,000 by 8 PM?”
* “Will BTC be between $115,000 and $120,000 at expiration?”
* “Will ETH exceed $5,000 by the end of the day?”
Do not hard-code market names.
The bot must dynamically discover markets and determine whether they are suitable for trading.
